BUY PRESSURE GAUGE — HOW IT WORKS
This indicator tracks cumulative buy vs sell volume from 9:30 AM, combined with
relative volume (RVOL), to detect institutional absorption and exhaustion patterns.
TIER 1 — HIGH CONVICTION (Telegram + iMessage alert)
🟢 Absorption + Persist → LONG (78% WR, ~2x/month)
RVOL 50-90th pct + buy_pct 60-80th pct at 10:00 AM, still in zone at 10:30
Logic: moderate buying + above-avg volume = real institutional accumulation
🔴 Exhaustion Fade → SHORT (68% WR, ~2x/month)
buy_pct top quintile at 10:00 AM, faded by 10:30
Logic: aggressive buying that couldn't sustain = trapped longs
🔴 Blow-off → SHORT (71% WR, ~0.5x/month)
RVOL >90th pct + buy_pct >80th pct = extreme volume + extreme buying
Logic: exhaustion, everyone already bought
TIER 2 — MODERATE CONVICTION (dashboard only)
⚡ Gap DOWN + buying = contrarian buy setup (69% WR)
⚡ Gap UP + buying faded = gap fade short (75% WR)
⚡ Below VWAP + buying faded = trap short (86% WR, small N)
KEY FINDINGS:
• buy_pct range is narrow (49-51%) — small shifts matter
• Raw buy_pct level alone is NOT predictive (no monotonic relationship)
• The CHANGE from 10:00→10:30 (persistence vs fade) is the real signal
• Sell-side absorption does NOT work — ES has structural long bias
• Shorts come from FAILED buying, not from detecting selling
• Signal window: 7:00-8:00 AM PT only, edge dies after that
WHAT THE NUMBERS MEAN:
• buy_pct 51%+ = top quintile (strong buying)
• buy_pct 49%- = bottom quintile (strong selling)
• RVOL 1.0 = average volume, >1.2 = above average
• Percentile ranks compare to last 700+ trading days