{ "generated": "2026-03-13T00:08:56.061266", "total_events": 35519, "oos_events": 10656, "oos_ic": 0.2528, "oos_hold_rate": 0.652, "level_type_summary": { "round25": { "n": 4149, "hold_rate": 0.6647, "accuracy": 0.6647, "ic": 0.2266, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.2, "avg_max_adv": 2.11, "reward_risk": 5.31 }, "session_low": { "n": 2554, "hold_rate": 0.5439, "accuracy": 0.5439, "ic": 0.2146, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.2, "avg_max_adv": 2.72, "reward_risk": 4.48 }, "prior_close": { "n": 998, "hold_rate": 0.7335, "accuracy": 0.7335, "ic": 0.2671, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.4, "avg_max_adv": 1.79, "reward_risk": 5.81 }, "session_high": { "n": 2955, "hold_rate": 0.7002, "accuracy": 0.7002, "ic": 0.2796, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.03, "avg_max_adv": 1.84, "reward_risk": 5.44 } }, "time_of_day": { "open_drive": { "n": 4004, "hold_rate": 0.5392, "accuracy": 0.5392, "ic": 0.1996, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.66, "avg_max_adv": 2.76, "reward_risk": 4.59 }, "mid_morning": { "n": 2617, "hold_rate": 0.6714, "accuracy": 0.6714, "ic": 0.2542, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.49, "avg_max_adv": 2.06, "reward_risk": 5.08 }, "lunch_lull": { "n": 2209, "hold_rate": 0.7515, "accuracy": 0.7515, "ic": 0.2332, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 9.46, "avg_max_adv": 1.64, "reward_risk": 5.75 }, "afternoon": { "n": 863, "hold_rate": 0.7636, "accuracy": 0.7636, "ic": 0.2544, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.18, "avg_max_adv": 1.47, "reward_risk": 6.92 }, "power_hour": { "n": 961, "hold_rate": 0.7399, "accuracy": 0.7399, "ic": 0.2855, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.18, "avg_max_adv": 1.66, "reward_risk": 6.15 } }, "confidence_tiers": { "medium": { "n": 3516, "hold_rate": 0.6433, "accuracy": 0.6433, "ic": 0.1167, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.54, "avg_max_adv": 2.22, "reward_risk": 5.19, "composite_range": "0.703 to 1.149" }, "strong_hold": { "n": 3623, "hold_rate": 0.7844, "accuracy": 0.7844, "ic": 0.0978, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.88, "avg_max_adv": 1.39, "reward_risk": 9.25, "composite_range": ">= 1.149" }, "strong_break": { "n": 3517, "hold_rate": 0.5243, "accuracy": 0.5243, "ic": 0.1699, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 8.65, "avg_max_adv": 2.87, "reward_risk": 3.02, "composite_range": "< 0.703" } }, "level_type_x_phase": { "round25__open_drive": { "n": 1044, "hold_rate": 0.546, "accuracy": 0.546, "ic": 0.1993, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 13.31, "avg_max_adv": 2.71, "reward_risk": 4.92 }, "round25__mid_morning": { "n": 1028, "hold_rate": 0.6634, "accuracy": 0.6634, "ic": 0.2484, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.19, "avg_max_adv": 2.18, "reward_risk": 5.12 }, "round25__lunch_lull": { "n": 1068, "hold_rate": 0.7163, "accuracy": 0.7163, "ic": 0.199, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 9.97, "avg_max_adv": 1.87, "reward_risk": 5.32 }, "round25__afternoon": { "n": 468, "hold_rate": 0.7436, "accuracy": 0.7436, "ic": 0.2236, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.54, "avg_max_adv": 1.59, "reward_risk": 6.64 }, "round25__power_hour": { "n": 539, "hold_rate": 0.7254, "accuracy": 0.7254, "ic": 0.2629, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.14, "avg_max_adv": 1.74, "reward_risk": 5.81 }, "session_low__open_drive": { "n": 1332, "hold_rate": 0.4955, "accuracy": 0.4955, "ic": 0.1815, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.86, "avg_max_adv": 2.98, "reward_risk": 4.32 }, "session_low__mid_morning": { "n": 658, "hold_rate": 0.5502, "accuracy": 0.5502, "ic": 0.2067, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.65, "avg_max_adv": 2.64, "reward_risk": 4.41 }, "session_low__lunch_lull": { "n": 345, "hold_rate": 0.6377, "accuracy": 0.6377, "ic": 0.247, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.86, "avg_max_adv": 2.3, "reward_risk": 4.72 }, "session_low__afternoon": { "n": 75, "hold_rate": 0.68, "accuracy": 0.68, "ic": 0.2561, "p_val": 0.0265, "avg_max_fav": 12.93, "avg_max_adv": 1.99, "reward_risk": 6.49 }, "session_low__power_hour": { "n": 144, "hold_rate": 0.6667, "accuracy": 0.6667, "ic": 0.2311, "p_val": 0.0053, "avg_max_fav": 11.44, "avg_max_adv": 2.14, "reward_risk": 5.36 }, "prior_close__open_drive": { "n": 290, "hold_rate": 0.6103, "accuracy": 0.6103, "ic": 0.1865, "p_val": 0.0014, "avg_max_fav": 12.38, "avg_max_adv": 2.44, "reward_risk": 5.08 }, "prior_close__mid_morning": { "n": 279, "hold_rate": 0.7419, "accuracy": 0.7419, "ic": 0.2838, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.64, "avg_max_adv": 1.77, "reward_risk": 6.01 }, "prior_close__lunch_lull": { "n": 248, "hold_rate": 0.8105, "accuracy": 0.8105, "ic": 0.2687, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 8.88, "avg_max_adv": 1.4, "reward_risk": 6.37 }, "prior_close__afternoon": { "n": 74, "hold_rate": 0.8378, "accuracy": 0.8378, "ic": 0.3639, "p_val": 0.0014, "avg_max_fav": 8.29, "avg_max_adv": 1.3, "reward_risk": 6.39 }, "prior_close__power_hour": { "n": 107, "hold_rate": 0.7944, "accuracy": 0.7944, "ic": 0.3234, "p_val": 0.0007, "avg_max_fav": 9.35, "avg_max_adv": 1.35, "reward_risk": 6.95 }, "session_high__open_drive": { "n": 1338, "hold_rate": 0.562, "accuracy": 0.562, "ic": 0.2088, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.02, "avg_max_adv": 2.65, "reward_risk": 4.53 }, "session_high__mid_morning": { "n": 652, "hold_rate": 0.7761, "accuracy": 0.7761, "ic": 0.2671, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 8.15, "avg_max_adv": 1.42, "reward_risk": 5.72 }, "session_high__lunch_lull": { "n": 548, "hold_rate": 0.865, "accuracy": 0.865, "ic": 0.2713, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 7.83, "avg_max_adv": 0.9, "reward_risk": 8.74 }, "session_high__afternoon": { "n": 246, "hold_rate": 0.8049, "accuracy": 0.8049, "ic": 0.2744, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 9.23, "avg_max_adv": 1.14, "reward_risk": 8.07 }, "session_high__power_hour": { "n": 171, "hold_rate": 0.8129, "accuracy": 0.8129, "ic": 0.3581, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 9.77, "avg_max_adv": 1.16, "reward_risk": 8.4 } }, "approach_side": { "round25__from_below": { "n": 2022, "hold_rate": 0.6553, "accuracy": 0.6553, "ic": 0.2275, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.54, "avg_max_adv": 2.17, "reward_risk": 5.32 }, "round25__from_above": { "n": 2127, "hold_rate": 0.6737, "accuracy": 0.6737, "ic": 0.2258, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.87, "avg_max_adv": 2.05, "reward_risk": 5.3 }, "session_low__from_above": { "n": 2554, "hold_rate": 0.5439, "accuracy": 0.5439, "ic": 0.2146, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.2, "avg_max_adv": 2.72, "reward_risk": 4.48 }, "prior_close__from_below": { "n": 505, "hold_rate": 0.7347, "accuracy": 0.7347, "ic": 0.2777, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.29, "avg_max_adv": 1.79, "reward_risk": 5.76 }, "prior_close__from_above": { "n": 493, "hold_rate": 0.7323, "accuracy": 0.7323, "ic": 0.2547, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.5, "avg_max_adv": 1.79, "reward_risk": 5.85 }, "session_high__from_below": { "n": 2955, "hold_rate": 0.7002, "accuracy": 0.7002, "ic": 0.2796, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.03, "avg_max_adv": 1.84, "reward_risk": 5.44 } }, "consecutive_tests": { "test_1": { "n": 4489, "hold_rate": 0.5743 }, "test_2": { "n": 1042, "hold_rate": 0.7092 }, "test_3": { "n": 504, "hold_rate": 0.7024 }, "test_4+": { "n": 4621, "hold_rate": 0.7092 } }, "excursion_analysis": { "round25__HOLD": { "n": 2758, "avg_max_fav": 13.75, "med_max_fav": 11.5, "p90_max_fav": 24.5, "avg_max_adv": 0.55, "med_max_adv": 0.0, "p90_max_adv": 2.5 }, "round25__BREAK": { "n": 1355, "avg_max_fav": 6.27, "med_max_fav": 5.5, "p90_max_fav": 12.3, "avg_max_adv": 5.3, "med_max_adv": 4.5, "p90_max_adv": 6.5 }, "session_low__HOLD": { "n": 1389, "avg_max_fav": 17.24, "med_max_fav": 14.5, "p90_max_fav": 30.5, "avg_max_adv": 0.78, "med_max_adv": 0.0, "p90_max_adv": 2.5 }, "session_low__BREAK": { "n": 1163, "avg_max_fav": 6.21, "med_max_fav": 5.5, "p90_max_fav": 11.5, "avg_max_adv": 5.05, "med_max_adv": 4.5, "p90_max_adv": 6.5 }, "prior_close__HOLD": { "n": 732, "avg_max_fav": 12.16, "med_max_fav": 10.5, "p90_max_fav": 21.5, "avg_max_adv": 0.55, "med_max_adv": 0.0, "p90_max_adv": 2.5 }, "prior_close__BREAK": { "n": 261, "avg_max_fav": 5.64, "med_max_fav": 4.5, "p90_max_fav": 10.5, "avg_max_adv": 5.27, "med_max_adv": 4.5, "p90_max_adv": 6.5 }, "session_high__HOLD": { "n": 2069, "avg_max_fav": 11.93, "med_max_fav": 9.5, "p90_max_fav": 22.1, "avg_max_adv": 0.53, "med_max_adv": 0.0, "p90_max_adv": 2.5 }, "session_high__BREAK": { "n": 851, "avg_max_fav": 5.78, "med_max_fav": 4.5, "p90_max_fav": 11.5, "avg_max_adv": 5.04, "med_max_adv": 4.5, "p90_max_adv": 6.5 } }, "day_of_week": { "Monday": { "n": 1856, "hold_rate": 0.6983, "accuracy": 0.6983, "ic": 0.2543, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.05, "avg_max_adv": 1.85, "reward_risk": 5.43 }, "Tuesday": { "n": 2374, "hold_rate": 0.69, "accuracy": 0.69, "ic": 0.2298, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.49, "avg_max_adv": 1.93, "reward_risk": 5.42 }, "Wednesday": { "n": 2326, "hold_rate": 0.6793, "accuracy": 0.6793, "ic": 0.2952, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 10.67, "avg_max_adv": 2.02, "reward_risk": 5.28 }, "Thursday": { "n": 1960, "hold_rate": 0.5781, "accuracy": 0.5781, "ic": 0.2256, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.43, "avg_max_adv": 2.57, "reward_risk": 4.84 }, "Friday": { "n": 2140, "hold_rate": 0.6079, "accuracy": 0.6079, "ic": 0.2447, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.64, "avg_max_adv": 2.42, "reward_risk": 4.8 } }, "absorption_quintiles": { "Q1_low": { "n": 2149, "hold_rate": 0.4295, "accuracy": 0.4295, "ic": 0.1782, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 14.44, "avg_max_adv": 3.33, "reward_risk": 4.34 }, "Q2": { "n": 2147, "hold_rate": 0.5543, "accuracy": 0.5543, "ic": 0.1747, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 12.3, "avg_max_adv": 2.74, "reward_risk": 4.49 }, "Q3": { "n": 2106, "hold_rate": 0.661, "accuracy": 0.661, "ic": 0.1821, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 11.15, "avg_max_adv": 2.16, "reward_risk": 5.17 }, "Q4": { "n": 2144, "hold_rate": 0.7565, "accuracy": 0.7565, "ic": 0.248, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 9.42, "avg_max_adv": 1.58, "reward_risk": 5.98 }, "Q5_high": { "n": 2110, "hold_rate": 0.863, "accuracy": 0.863, "ic": 0.2435, "p_val": 0.0, "avg_max_fav": 7.83, "avg_max_adv": 0.94, "reward_risk": 8.29 } }, "decision_rules": [ { "rule": "LEVEL_TYPE_BIAS", "description": "Strongest hold: prior_close (73.4%). Weakest hold: session_low (54.4%). Fade breaks at prior_close, respect breaks at session_low.", "confidence": "HIGH" }, { "rule": "TOD_BREAK_BIAS_OPEN_DRIVE", "description": "During open_drive, levels only hold 53.9% (n=4004). Favor break/continuation trades.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "rule": "TOD_HOLD_BIAS_LUNCH_LULL", "description": "During lunch_lull, levels hold 75.1% of the time (n=2209). Favor hold/bounce trades.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "rule": "TOD_HOLD_BIAS_AFTERNOON", "description": "During afternoon, levels hold 76.4% of the time (n=863). Favor hold/bounce trades.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "rule": "TOD_HOLD_BIAS_POWER_HOUR", "description": "During power_hour, levels hold 74.0% of the time (n=961). Favor hold/bounce trades.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "rule": "CONFIDENCE_TIER_TRADE", "description": "When composite score is HIGH (>= 1.149): hold rate 78.4%, accuracy 78.4%. When LOW (< 0.703): hold rate 52.4%, accuracy 52.4%. Only trade when confidence is strong.", "confidence": "HIGH" }, { "rule": "CONSECUTIVE_TEST_TOD_CONFOUND", "description": "1st test hold rate: 57.4% (avg time ~11:00 ET). 4th+ test: 70.9% (avg time ~12:30 ET). \u26a0\ufe0f CONFOUNDED BY TIME: 1st tests cluster in volatile open, later tests in quiet lunch. The 'levels strengthen with tests' effect is likely a TOD artifact. Use TIME-OF-DAY, not test count, as the real factor.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "rule": "ABSORPTION_DEFENSE", "description": "\u26a0\ufe0f CORRECTION: Phase 0 report claimed absorption was 'inverted' \u2014 THIS WAS WRONG. High absorption (Q5) hold rate = 86.3%, Low absorption (Q1) hold rate = 43.0%. Intuitive after all: heavy absorption at a level = strong defense = HOLD. Low absorption = no one defending = BREAK. The IC was always positive (+0.33); the 'inversion' claim was a misread of thresholded accuracy.", "confidence": "HIGH" } ] }