{
  "meta": {
    "overlap_start": "2025-03-25",
    "overlap_end": "2026-03-24",
    "is_dates_n": 176,
    "oos_dates_n": 76,
    "total_moments": 4631,
    "moments_by_kind": {
      "B": 1902,
      "D": 1387,
      "A": 1294,
      "C": 48
    }
  },
  "results": {
    "A": {
      "IS": {
        "kind": "A",
        "split": "IS",
        "n_total": 958,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.697,
        "baseline_n": 857,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.709,
        "agree_n": 615,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.665,
        "oppose_n": 242,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.716,
        "comp_rising_n": 415,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.679,
        "comp_falling_n": 442,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.76,
        "divergence_n": 25,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.673,
        "nodiv_n": 153,
        "spearman_rho": -0.021,
        "spearman_p": 0.519
      },
      "OOS": {
        "kind": "A",
        "split": "OOS",
        "n_total": 336,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.73,
        "baseline_n": 318,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.746,
        "agree_n": 228,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.689,
        "oppose_n": 90,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.698,
        "comp_rising_n": 169,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.765,
        "comp_falling_n": 149,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.692,
        "divergence_n": 13,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.711,
        "nodiv_n": 76,
        "spearman_rho": 0.011,
        "spearman_p": 0.8405
      }
    },
    "B": {
      "IS": {
        "kind": "B",
        "split": "IS",
        "n_total": 1348,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.726,
        "baseline_n": 1244,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.715,
        "agree_n": 905,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.755,
        "oppose_n": 339,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.731,
        "comp_rising_n": 614,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.721,
        "comp_falling_n": 630,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.636,
        "divergence_n": 33,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.747,
        "nodiv_n": 265,
        "spearman_rho": -0.007,
        "spearman_p": 0.8006
      },
      "OOS": {
        "kind": "B",
        "split": "OOS",
        "n_total": 554,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.695,
        "baseline_n": 522,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.693,
        "agree_n": 361,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.702,
        "oppose_n": 161,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.739,
        "comp_rising_n": 257,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.653,
        "comp_falling_n": 265,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.739,
        "divergence_n": 23,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.711,
        "nodiv_n": 121,
        "spearman_rho": -0.018,
        "spearman_p": 0.6767
      }
    },
    "C": {
      "IS": {
        "kind": "C",
        "split": "IS",
        "n_total": 38,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.613,
        "baseline_n": 31,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.727,
        "agree_n": 22,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.333,
        "oppose_n": 9,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.688,
        "comp_rising_n": 16,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.533,
        "comp_falling_n": 15,
        "divergence_break_rate": 1.0,
        "divergence_n": 1,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.333,
        "nodiv_n": 6,
        "spearman_rho": 0.282,
        "spearman_p": 0.086
      },
      "OOS": {
        "kind": "C",
        "split": "OOS",
        "n_total": 10,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.5,
        "baseline_n": 6,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.25,
        "agree_n": 4,
        "oppose_break_rate": 1.0,
        "oppose_n": 2,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.5,
        "comp_rising_n": 2,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.5,
        "comp_falling_n": 4,
        "divergence_break_rate": null,
        "divergence_n": 0,
        "nodiv_break_rate": null,
        "nodiv_n": 0,
        "spearman_rho": -0.091,
        "spearman_p": 0.8028
      }
    },
    "D": {
      "IS": {
        "kind": "D",
        "split": "IS",
        "n_total": 998,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.723,
        "baseline_n": 938,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.698,
        "agree_n": 736,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.812,
        "oppose_n": 202,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.725,
        "comp_rising_n": 426,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.721,
        "comp_falling_n": 512,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.706,
        "divergence_n": 17,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.751,
        "nodiv_n": 197,
        "spearman_rho": -0.061,
        "spearman_p": 0.0547
      },
      "OOS": {
        "kind": "D",
        "split": "OOS",
        "n_total": 389,
        "baseline_break_rate": 0.695,
        "baseline_n": 370,
        "agree_break_rate": 0.699,
        "agree_n": 259,
        "oppose_break_rate": 0.685,
        "oppose_n": 111,
        "comp_rising_break_rate": 0.717,
        "comp_rising_n": 173,
        "comp_falling_break_rate": 0.675,
        "comp_falling_n": 197,
        "divergence_break_rate": 0.5,
        "divergence_n": 10,
        "nodiv_break_rate": 0.753,
        "nodiv_n": 77,
        "spearman_rho": -0.047,
        "spearman_p": 0.3599
      }
    }
  },
  "null_tests": {
    "A": {
      "kind": "A",
      "split": "IS",
      "real_rho": -0.021,
      "perm_mean_rho": -0.0015,
      "perm_std_rho": 0.0331,
      "perm_p": 0.539,
      "n": 958
    },
    "B": {
      "kind": "B",
      "split": "IS",
      "real_rho": -0.007,
      "perm_mean_rho": 0.0006,
      "perm_std_rho": 0.0267,
      "perm_p": 0.796,
      "n": 1347
    },
    "C": {
      "kind": "C",
      "split": "IS",
      "real_rho": 0.282,
      "perm_mean_rho": -0.0071,
      "perm_std_rho": 0.1706,
      "perm_p": 0.098,
      "n": 38
    },
    "D": {
      "kind": "D",
      "split": "IS",
      "real_rho": -0.061,
      "perm_mean_rho": 0.0025,
      "perm_std_rho": 0.0315,
      "perm_p": 0.051,
      "n": 998
    }
  }
}