{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2026-03-03",
    "end": "2026-03-11",
    "n_days": 7,
    "n_bars": 300
  },
  "timing_curve": [
    {
      "lag_min": 0,
      "n": 300,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 54.666666666666664,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 44.333333333333336
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 5,
      "n": 293,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 46.075085324232084,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 45.051194539249146
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 10,
      "n": 286,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 46.15384615384615,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 48.25174825174825
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 15,
      "n": 279,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 46.59498207885305,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 46.95340501792115
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 20,
      "n": 272,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 48.529411764705884,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 46.32352941176471
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 25,
      "n": 265,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 43.39622641509434,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 47.924528301886795
    },
    {
      "lag_min": 30,
      "n": 258,
      "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 44.57364341085272,
      "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 48.837209302325576
    }
  ],
  "best_mm_opposition_lag": {
    "lag_min": 0.0,
    "n": 300.0,
    "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 54.666666666666664,
    "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 44.333333333333336
  },
  "best_delta_opposition_lag": {
    "lag_min": 30.0,
    "n": 258.0,
    "mm_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 44.57364341085272,
    "delta_vs_retail_opposition_pct": 48.837209302325576
  },
  "conditional_results": [
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "all",
      "n": 216,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 10.185185185185185,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.1134673910712667
    },
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "retail_shock",
      "n": 54,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 7.4074074074074066,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": -0.6419739066266108
    },
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "fade_now",
      "n": 119,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 12.605042016806722,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.8454136288038707
    },
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
      "n": 37,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 8.108108108108109,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.2006801864195505
    },
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "retail_with_momentum",
      "n": 87,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 11.494252873563218,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.17905535430318267
    },
    {
      "horizon": "5m",
      "group": "retail_against_momentum",
      "n": 121,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 9.917355371900827,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.9703121705194884
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "all",
      "n": 210,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 14.285714285714285,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.3177018142523342
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "retail_shock",
      "n": 52,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 13.461538461538462,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.5122135794809302
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "fade_now",
      "n": 114,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 16.666666666666664,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.3821324996612971
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
      "n": 35,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 20.0,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.7562599359782135
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "retail_with_momentum",
      "n": 87,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 10.344827586206897,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.49523956928591534
    },
    {
      "horizon": "10m",
      "group": "retail_against_momentum",
      "n": 115,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 18.26086956521739,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.2324376318260075
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "all",
      "n": 204,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 18.137254901960784,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.4097341542378592
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "retail_shock",
      "n": 52,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 19.230769230769234,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": -0.10674567369084481
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "fade_now",
      "n": 110,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 16.363636363636363,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.3690441240300295
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
      "n": 35,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 20.0,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.290280781532895
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "retail_with_momentum",
      "n": 84,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 20.238095238095237,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.0492577183690432
    },
    {
      "horizon": "15m",
      "group": "retail_against_momentum",
      "n": 113,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 16.8141592920354,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.6392620959175903
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "all",
      "n": 186,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 21.50537634408602,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.1517339364184176
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "retail_shock",
      "n": 44,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 27.27272727272727,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.5703407959177892
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "fade_now",
      "n": 101,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 20.792079207920793,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.9777502465867953
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
      "n": 30,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 33.33333333333333,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.7656341543023104
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "retail_with_momentum",
      "n": 77,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 27.27272727272727,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.1486035516892166
    },
    {
      "horizon": "30m",
      "group": "retail_against_momentum",
      "n": 102,
      "hedge_hit_pct": 15.686274509803921,
      "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.813805059604456
    }
  ],
  "top_conditions": {
    "10m": [
      {
        "horizon": "10m",
        "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
        "n": 35,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 20.0,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.7562599359782135
      },
      {
        "horizon": "10m",
        "group": "retail_against_momentum",
        "n": 115,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 18.26086956521739,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.2324376318260075
      },
      {
        "horizon": "10m",
        "group": "fade_now",
        "n": 114,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 16.666666666666664,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.3821324996612971
      },
      {
        "horizon": "10m",
        "group": "all",
        "n": 210,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 14.285714285714285,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.3177018142523342
      }
    ],
    "15m": [
      {
        "horizon": "15m",
        "group": "retail_with_momentum",
        "n": 84,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 20.238095238095237,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.0492577183690432
      },
      {
        "horizon": "15m",
        "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
        "n": 35,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 20.0,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.290280781532895
      },
      {
        "horizon": "15m",
        "group": "retail_shock",
        "n": 52,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 19.230769230769234,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": -0.10674567369084481
      },
      {
        "horizon": "15m",
        "group": "all",
        "n": 204,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 18.137254901960784,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 1.4097341542378592
      }
    ],
    "30m": [
      {
        "horizon": "30m",
        "group": "shock_and_fade_now",
        "n": 30,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 33.33333333333333,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.7656341543023104
      },
      {
        "horizon": "30m",
        "group": "retail_shock",
        "n": 44,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 27.27272727272727,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 0.5703407959177892
      },
      {
        "horizon": "30m",
        "group": "retail_with_momentum",
        "n": 77,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 27.27272727272727,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.1486035516892166
      },
      {
        "horizon": "30m",
        "group": "all",
        "n": 186,
        "hedge_hit_pct": 21.50537634408602,
        "avg_fwd_ret_bps_in_fade_dir": 2.1517339364184176
      }
    ]
  }
}