{
  "description": "5-min HIRO retail options + SPY stock retail flow backtest",
  "dates": [
    "2026-03-03",
    "2026-03-04",
    "2026-03-05",
    "2026-03-06",
    "2026-03-09"
  ],
  "total_bars": 384,
  "flow_states": {
    "BOTH_BUYING": {
      "N": 116,
      "30m_avg_bps": 2.1,
      "30m_win_rate": 47.4,
      "1h_avg_bps": 4.39,
      "1h_win_rate": 46.6,
      "3h_avg_bps": 4.83,
      "3h_win_rate": 38.8,
      "eod_avg_bps": -0.69,
      "eod_win_rate": 36.2
    },
    "BOTH_SELLING": {
      "N": 98,
      "30m_avg_bps": 1.04,
      "30m_win_rate": 44.9,
      "1h_avg_bps": 2.68,
      "1h_win_rate": 50.0,
      "3h_avg_bps": 2.5,
      "3h_win_rate": 44.9,
      "eod_avg_bps": -0.37,
      "eod_win_rate": 34.7
    },
    "DIVERGENT_HIRO_BUY": {
      "N": 81,
      "30m_avg_bps": 1.31,
      "30m_win_rate": 46.9,
      "1h_avg_bps": 5.06,
      "1h_win_rate": 48.1,
      "3h_avg_bps": 14.11,
      "3h_win_rate": 53.1,
      "eod_avg_bps": 15.55,
      "eod_win_rate": 50.6
    },
    "DIVERGENT_STOCK_BUY": {
      "N": 89,
      "30m_avg_bps": 5.68,
      "30m_win_rate": 61.8,
      "1h_avg_bps": 6.65,
      "1h_win_rate": 56.2,
      "3h_avg_bps": 4.92,
      "3h_win_rate": 43.8,
      "eod_avg_bps": 1.84,
      "eod_win_rate": 39.3
    }
  },
  "cumulative_states": {
    "CUM_BOTH_POS": {
      "N": 79,
      "30m_avg_bps": 2.12,
      "30m_win_rate": 45.6,
      "1h_avg_bps": -0.39,
      "1h_win_rate": 36.7,
      "3h_avg_bps": -14.74,
      "3h_win_rate": 21.5,
      "eod_avg_bps": -28.55,
      "eod_win_rate": 19.0
    },
    "CUM_BOTH_NEG": {
      "N": 99,
      "30m_avg_bps": -2.15,
      "30m_win_rate": 42.4,
      "1h_avg_bps": -4.45,
      "1h_win_rate": 37.4,
      "3h_avg_bps": 0.51,
      "3h_win_rate": 41.4,
      "eod_avg_bps": -0.42,
      "eod_win_rate": 33.3
    },
    "CUM_HIRO_POS": {
      "N": 116,
      "30m_avg_bps": 6.52,
      "30m_win_rate": 54.3,
      "1h_avg_bps": 13.66,
      "1h_win_rate": 63.8,
      "3h_avg_bps": 25.09,
      "3h_win_rate": 62.1,
      "eod_avg_bps": 26.62,
      "eod_win_rate": 57.8
    },
    "CUM_STOCK_POS": {
      "N": 90,
      "30m_avg_bps": 2.73,
      "30m_win_rate": 56.7,
      "1h_avg_bps": 7.33,
      "1h_win_rate": 57.8,
      "3h_avg_bps": 6.55,
      "3h_win_rate": 45.6,
      "eod_avg_bps": 5.74,
      "eod_win_rate": 41.1
    }
  },
  "acceleration_states": {
    "BOTH_ACCEL_BUY": {
      "N": 49,
      "30m_avg_bps": 2.8,
      "30m_win_rate": 46.9,
      "1h_avg_bps": 4.16,
      "1h_win_rate": 44.9,
      "3h_avg_bps": 2.37,
      "3h_win_rate": 36.7,
      "eod_avg_bps": 0.41,
      "eod_win_rate": 36.7
    },
    "BOTH_ACCEL_SELL": {
      "N": 45,
      "30m_avg_bps": -0.63,
      "30m_win_rate": 42.2,
      "1h_avg_bps": 1.72,
      "1h_win_rate": 46.7,
      "3h_avg_bps": 0.59,
      "3h_win_rate": 40.0,
      "eod_avg_bps": 0.33,
      "eod_win_rate": 37.8
    },
    "HIRO_ACCEL_BUY": {
      "N": 59,
      "30m_avg_bps": 1.02,
      "30m_win_rate": 47.5,
      "1h_avg_bps": 4.68,
      "1h_win_rate": 45.8,
      "3h_avg_bps": 10.5,
      "3h_win_rate": 52.5,
      "eod_avg_bps": 9.51,
      "eod_win_rate": 47.5
    },
    "STOCK_ACCEL_BUY": {
      "N": 64,
      "30m_avg_bps": 4.26,
      "30m_win_rate": 64.1,
      "1h_avg_bps": 4.73,
      "1h_win_rate": 57.8,
      "3h_avg_bps": 6.55,
      "3h_win_rate": 46.9,
      "eod_avg_bps": 3.38,
      "eod_win_rate": 42.2
    }
  },
  "information_coefficient": {
    "30m": {
      "combined": -0.0482,
      "hiro": -0.0383,
      "stock": -0.0381
    },
    "1h": {
      "combined": -0.0616,
      "hiro": 0.0015,
      "stock": -0.0659
    },
    "3h": {
      "combined": -0.0934,
      "hiro": 0.0508,
      "stock": -0.1163
    },
    "eod": {
      "combined": -0.1278,
      "hiro": 0.0485,
      "stock": -0.152
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "key_finding": "BOTH_BUYING \u2192 FADE: avg EOD return = -0.7 bps",
    "hiro_vs_stock_divergence": "HIRO is more predictive in divergence (HIRO buy EOD=+15.6, Stock buy EOD=+1.8)"
  }
}