{
  "answer": "Mostly no. In this archived sample, canonical RORO does not reliably sort intraday SPX cash down-moves into fadeable versus continuation cases.",
  "verdict": "RORO is not a robust fade-vs-continuation classifier in this archived sample. The null test does not pass, and the most intuitive conditional splits are mixed.",
  "counterargument": "The whole study only has archived live RORO history from mid-March to mid-April 2026. That gives many intraday events but only a small number of independent trading days, so event-level p-values likely overstate certainty because nearby events on the same day are correlated.",
  "n_snapshot_rows": 599,
  "n_events": 258,
  "n_dates": 15,
  "is_dates": [
    "2026-03-20",
    "2026-03-23",
    "2026-03-24",
    "2026-03-25",
    "2026-03-26",
    "2026-03-27",
    "2026-03-30",
    "2026-03-31",
    "2026-04-01"
  ],
  "oos_dates": [
    "2026-04-02",
    "2026-04-06",
    "2026-04-07",
    "2026-04-08",
    "2026-04-09",
    "2026-04-10"
  ],
  "is_event_count": 189,
  "oos_event_count": 69,
  "quantile_edges_is": {
    "0.2": 25.12,
    "0.4": 40.7,
    "0.6": 51.1,
    "0.8": 55.88
  },
  "best_oos": {
    "sample": "OOS",
    "threshold": 15.0,
    "anchor_min": 30,
    "anchor_label": "30m",
    "move_type": "down_move",
    "outcome_family": "continuation",
    "outcome_pts": 10.0,
    "horizon_min": 60,
    "horizon_label": "60m",
    "grouping": "roro_quintile",
    "bucket": "Q1",
    "n": 3,
    "success": 2,
    "rate": 0.6666666666666666,
    "base_rate": 0.46153846153846156,
    "edge_vs_base_pp": 20.512820512820507,
    "p_value_vs_base": 1.0
  },
  "worst_oos": {
    "sample": "OOS",
    "threshold": 10.0,
    "anchor_min": 60,
    "anchor_label": "60m",
    "move_type": "down_move",
    "outcome_family": "fade",
    "outcome_pts": 10.0,
    "horizon_min": 60,
    "horizon_label": "60m",
    "grouping": "roro_quintile",
    "bucket": "Q5",
    "n": 8,
    "success": 2,
    "rate": 0.25,
    "base_rate": 0.5714285714285714,
    "edge_vs_base_pp": -32.14285714285714,
    "p_value_vs_base": 0.2043343653250774
  }
}