{
  "active": true,
  "timestamp": "2026-03-13T11:28:03.742412-04:00",
  "gap_pct": -1.062,
  "gap_class": "LARGE",
  "gap_description": "Large gap (1.0-1.5%)",
  "gap_direction": "DOWN",
  "prices": {
    "current": 6658.5,
    "prior_close": 6730.0,
    "open": 6706.5,
    "return_from_open": -0.716
  },
  "fill_probability": {
    "fill_rate": 18.4,
    "n": 49,
    "label": "Moderate"
  },
  "vix_outlook": {
    "vix_range": ">25",
    "n": 8,
    "reversal": 25.0,
    "continuation": 75.0,
    "vix": 26.4,
    "gap_threshold": ">1%"
  },
  "morning_assessment": {
    "status": "CONTINUING_DOWN",
    "signal": "DO_NOT_BUY",
    "continuation_rate": 83.3,
    "n": 6,
    "note": "Morning drops further (-0.72%). Continuation rate: 83.3%. DO NOT fight this.",
    "first_30m_ret": -0.7157235517781256
  },
  "checkpoint": {
    "checkpoint": "11:00",
    "label": "2 hours",
    "corr_with_close": 0.52,
    "note": "Good directional read",
    "confidence_pct": 52
  },
  "gex_conditioning": {
    "net_gex": 0,
    "gex_positive": false,
    "stale": false,
    "setup": "GAP_DOWN_NEG_GEX",
    "wr": 52,
    "n": 27,
    "action": "Coin flip unless filtered",
    "boosters": [
      "Inst \u03b3 HIGH \u2192 higher fade WR",
      "DIX high \u2192 70%",
      "First 15m \u2191 \u2192 62%"
    ],
    "risks": [
      "Inst \u03b3 LOW \u2192 DO NOT fade \u274c",
      "First 15m \u2193 \u2192 36%",
      "VIX>25 \u2192 33%"
    ]
  },
  "entry_timing": null,
  "trading_rules": [
    {
      "priority": 1,
      "rule": "Do NOT buy at open. Wait 30 minutes minimum.",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "source": "87 gap-down events: open entry WR \u226447%"
    },
    {
      "priority": 2,
      "rule": "Morning CONTINUING DOWN \u2014 DO NOT BUY (83.3% continuation)",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "source": "N=6 events"
    },
    {
      "priority": 3,
      "rule": "Direction is 52% correlated with close \u2014 trust the trend",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "source": "Good directional read"
    },
    {
      "priority": 5,
      "rule": "VIX 26 (>25) + gap >1% \u2192 75% CONTINUATION. Don't fight it.",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "source": "N=8, reversal rate only 25%"
    },
    {
      "priority": 6,
      "rule": "Negative GEX + VIX>25 \u2192 only 33% fade. STAY OUT.",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "source": "Worst gap-down setup"
    }
  ],
  "shapes": {
    "v_shape": {
      "pct": 26.4,
      "avg_otc": 0.87,
      "note": "Sharp reversal \u2014 best outcome"
    },
    "l_shape": {
      "pct": 35.6,
      "avg_otc": -0.79,
      "note": "Grinds lower all day \u2014 worst outcome"
    }
  },
  "consecutive": {
    "reversal_rate": 51.9,
    "n": 27,
    "note": "2nd gap-down in a row: slightly better reversal odds"
  }
}