{
  "backtest": "sector_leadership",
  "run_date": "2026-03-03T22:48:40",
  "theory": "Heavy S&P sectors lead the index directionally",
  "daily": {
    "n_indicators_tested": 22,
    "n_significant": 1,
    "best_indicator": "xlk_xlf_corr",
    "best_ic_oos": 0.0683,
    "best_t_stat": 1.64,
    "note": "Marginal — below t>2.0 threshold"
  },
  "intraday": {
    "n_indicators_tested": 22,
    "n_significant": 3,
    "best_indicator": "xlk_xlf_corr",
    "best_ic_oos_1h": 0.1024,
    "best_t_stat": 2.47,
    "note": "Statistically significant but correlated with momentum proxies"
  },
  "verdict": "mostly_rejected",
  "summary": "The core theory that heavy sectors LEAD SPY is mostly wrong — the relationship is contemporaneous, not predictive. One exception: XLK-XLF rolling correlation works as a regime indicator on intraday 1h bars (IC=0.10, t=2.47), but it's correlated with existing signals. Not recommended as standalone — use as regime confirmation only.",
  "actionable": false,
  "recommendation": "Monitor XLK-XLF correlation as secondary regime confirmation. Do not build standalone dashboard."
}